Aspect Codex

Probability Manipulation

Probability Manipulation is an imported aspect from the Jericha Aspect Data sheet. Its full lore and named powers can be expanded here as the canon text is added.

Probability ManipulationSpellcastingChargesArcana

What This Aspect Does

Probability Manipulation defines a character's supernatural focus, training profile, resource model, and power family. This page is structured so each separate power can become its own linked entry instead of being buried inside a character sheet.

Power Links

42 separate powersReusable by characters, items, curses, and locations
Tier 0ReactionAt-Will

Lucky Nudge

When a creature you can see within range makes an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, bend a tiny thread of chance. Roll 1d4 and choose whether to add or subtract it from the roll before the outcome is known.

Tier 0ActionAt-Will

Unlikely Strike

Collapse a small bad-luck event onto one creature within range. The target must make a CHA save, taking 4 (1d8) force damage on a failed save. If it rolls a natural 1 on the save, it also falls prone or drops one held object.

Tier 1ReactionAt-Will

Silvery Barbs

When a creature you can see within range succeeds on an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, force it to reroll the d20 and use the lower result. Then choose another creature within range; it has advantage on the next attack roll, ability check, or saving throw it makes within 1 minute.

Tier 1ReactionAt-Will

Lucky Break

When a creature you can see within range fails an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, roll 1d6 and add it to the roll, potentially turning the failure into a success.

Tier 1ActionAt-Will

Jinx

Choose one creature within range. The target must make a CHA save. On a failed save, the next time it makes an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw before the duration ends, it subtracts 1d6 from the roll, and the effect ends.

Tier 1ReactionAt-Will

Coincidental Cover

When a creature you can see within range is targeted by an attack, cause a minor coincidence to interfere. Roll 1d6 and subtract it from the triggering attack roll before the outcome is known.

Tier 21 MinuteAt-Will

Fortune's Favor

Impart latent luck to yourself or one willing creature within range. Once before the effect ends, the target may roll one additional d20 on an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw and choose which result to use. The effect then ends.

Tier 2ReactionAt-Will

Twist Fate

When a creature you can see within range would roll with advantage or disadvantage, neutralize the imbalance. Advantage becomes a normal roll, or disadvantage becomes a normal roll. Use this before the roll.

Tier 2ActionAt-Will

Bad Odds

Choose one creature within range. It must make a CHA save. On a failed save, once per turn when it makes an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, you may roll 1d4 and subtract it from the roll. The target repeats the save at the end of each turn.

Tier 2ActionAt-Will

Improbable Slip

Choose one creature within range. The target must make a DEX save as chance turns footing and gear against it, taking 10 (3d6) force damage and falling prone or dropping one held object on a failed save, or half damage only on a success.

Tier 3ActionAt-Will

Loaded Odds

Choose one willing creature within range. For the duration, once per turn when the target makes an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, it may roll 1d4 and add it to the roll. If it rolls a natural 1 on a d20 test, the effect ends.

Tier 3ActionAt-Will

Misfortune Mark

Choose one creature within range. The target must make a CHA save. On a failed save, once per turn when it makes an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, you may roll 1d4 and subtract it from the roll. If it rolls a natural 20, the effect ends.

Tier 3ActionAt-Will

Probability Spike

Collapse a cluster of bad outcomes onto one creature within range. The target must make a CHA save, taking 18 (4d8) force damage and granting advantage to the next attack roll against it before the end of your next turn on a failed save, or half damage only on a success.

Tier 3Bonus ActionAt-Will

Pattern Glimpse

You glimpse repeating patterns in nearby probability. For the duration, you have advantage on Investigation and Insight checks, and once before the effect ends, you may add 1d6 to an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw you make.

Tier 4ReactionAt-Will

Bend Outcome

When a creature you can see within range succeeds or fails on an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, roll 1d8 and add or subtract it from the triggering roll, potentially changing the outcome before consequences resolve.

Tier 4ActionAt-Will

Improbability Field

Create a 20-ft. radius sphere of unstable probability centered within range. When a creature starts there or enters for the first time on a turn, it must make a CHA save. On a failed save, it subtracts 1d4 from the first attack roll, ability check, or saving throw it makes before the start of its next turn.

Tier 4ReactionAt-Will

Borrowed Luck

When a creature within range succeeds on an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, force a CHA save. On a failed save, subtract 1d8 from the triggering roll, potentially causing failure. If it fails this way, one creature of your choice within range adds 1d8 to its next d20 test before your next turn.

Tier 4ActionAt-Will

Coincidence Cascade

Choose up to three creatures within range. Each target must make a DEX save as unlikely accidents erupt nearby. On a failed save, a target takes 22 (4d10) force damage and falls prone, drops one held object, or is pushed 10 ft.; on a success, it takes half damage only.

Tier 5ActionAt-Will

Lucky Charm

Touch one Tiny nonmagical object and invest it with luck. While a willing creature carries it, that creature may add 1d8 to one attack roll, ability check, or saving throw each round. While the charm is carried by another creature, you subtract 1d4 from your first d20 test each round.

Tier 5ReactionAt-Will

Probability Debt

When a creature within range succeeds on an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, force a CHA save. On a failed save, the roll still succeeds, but the next d20 test the target makes before the duration ends is made with disadvantage. If it already has disadvantage, it subtracts 1d10 instead.

Tier 5ReactionAt-Will

Chosen Outcome

When a willing creature within range makes an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, name a d20 result from 2 to 19 before the die is rolled. If the d20 result is within 2 of that number, treat the d20 as the named result instead.

Tier 5ActionAt-Will

Unlucky Collapse

Choose one creature within range. The target must make a CHA save, taking 33 (6d10) force damage on a failed save, or half on a success. If the target has failed an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw since the start of its last turn, it also falls prone and cannot take reactions until your next turn.

Tier 610 MinutesAt-Will

Contingency

Choose one Tier 5 or lower power you know that takes an action and can target only you. Use it as part of this power, but it takes effect later when a clear trigger you name occurs. You can have only one Contingency active at a time.

Tier 6ReactionAt-Will

Fated Reversal

When a creature within range rolls a natural 1 or natural 20 on an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, invert the fortune. A natural 20 becomes a natural 1, or a natural 1 becomes a natural 20. This changes the outcome, not the physical die face for unrelated effects.

Tier 6ActionAt-Will

Probability Ward

Stabilize probability around chosen creatures in the emanation. For the duration, chosen creatures cannot have disadvantage imposed on attack rolls, ability checks, or saving throws unless incapacitated. Once per round when a chosen creature rolls a natural 1, it may reroll and must use the new result.

Tier 6ActionAt-Will

Misfortune Engine

Create a 20-ft. radius sphere of hostile probability centered within range. When a creature starts there or enters for the first time on a turn, it must make a CHA save. On a failed save, its next d20 test before its next turn has disadvantage. If it fails that roll, it takes 18 (4d8) force damage.

Tier 7ReactionAt-Will

Outcome Theft

When a creature within range succeeds on an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, force a CHA save. On a failed save, the success becomes a failure, and one creature of your choice within range gains advantage on the next attack roll, ability check, or saving throw it makes before your next turn.

Tier 7ActionAt-Will

Probability Anchor

Choose one willing creature within range. For the duration, whenever it rolls a d20, it may treat any roll of 9 or lower as a 10. The effect ends early if the target rolls a natural 1.

Tier 7ActionAt-Will

Curse of Cascading Failure

Choose one creature within range. The target must make a CHA save. On a failed save, whenever it fails an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, it subtracts 1d6 from its next d20 test before the end of its next turn. If this penalty causes another failure, it takes 4d6 force damage. The target repeats the save at the end of each turn.

Tier 7Bonus ActionAt-Will

Predicted Opening

Choose one creature within range. Until the start of your next turn, the first attack roll made against it has advantage. If that attack hits, the attacker rolls one additional damage die of the attack’s type. If it misses, the attacker may move up to 10 ft. without provoking opportunity attacks.

Tier 8ActionAt-Will

Probability Storm

Create a 30-ft. radius sphere of chaotic probability centered within range. When a creature starts there or enters for the first time on a turn, it must make a CHA save. On a failed save, roll 1d6: 1–2, disadvantage on its next d20 test; 3–4, speed halved; 5–6, it takes 6d8 force damage.

Tier 8Reaction1/Long Rest

Borrow Tomorrow

When a willing creature within range fails an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, it may choose to succeed instead. If it does, the next attack roll, ability check, or saving throw it makes before the end of its next turn automatically fails.

Tier 8ActionAt-Will

Chain of Fortune

Choose up to five willing creatures within range. For the duration, whenever one target rolls a natural 20 on an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, another target may treat the next d20 test it makes before the end of its next turn as if it rolled a 20. The granted result is not natural unless the GM rules otherwise.

Tier 8ActionAt-Will

Doom Equation

Choose one creature within range and calculate its worst path. The target must make a CHA save. On a failed save, whenever it makes an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, it subtracts 1d6. If this causes failure, it takes 2d8 force damage. It repeats the save at the end of each turn.

Tier 91 Minute1/Long Rest

Foresight

Touch a willing creature and bestow sight into immediate future paths. For the duration, the target has advantage on attack rolls, ability checks, and saving throws, and other creatures have disadvantage on attack rolls against it. The effect ends early if you use this power again.

Tier 9ActionAt-Will

Miracle Odds

Choose one willing creature within range. For the duration, whenever it makes an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, it may roll one additional d20 and choose which result to use. Once during the duration, if the chosen result still fails, the target may choose to succeed instead.

Tier 9ActionAt-Will

Extinction Event

Choose up to six creatures within range and collapse fatal misfortune around them. Each target must make a CHA save, taking 20d6 force damage and falling prone on a failed save, or half damage only on a success. A target has disadvantage on the save if it has failed a d20 test since the start of its last turn.

Tier 9ActionAt-Will

Inevitable Failure

Choose one creature within range. The target must make a CHA save. On a failed save, the first time on each of its turns it makes an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, it rolls an additional d20 and uses the lowest result. Once during the duration when it succeeds on a d20 test, you may turn that success into failure. It repeats the save at the end of each turn.

Tier 10Bonus ActionAt-Will

Absolute Certainty

For the duration, once on each of your turns when you make an attack roll, ability check, or saving throw, you may treat the d20 roll as a 20. Once during the duration, when a creature you can see makes a d20 test, you may treat its d20 roll as a 1. These do not count as natural rolls unless the GM rules otherwise.

Tier 10Action1/Long Rest

Catastrophic Misfortune

Choose one creature within range and collapse its luck. The target must make a CHA save. On a failed save, the first time each turn it makes a d20 test, it rolls an additional d20 and uses the lowest result. Whenever it misses an attack or fails a save during the duration, it takes 4d10 force damage. It repeats the save at the end of each turn.

Tier 1010 Minutes1/Long Rest

Perfect Contingency

Choose up to three Tier 7 or lower powers you know that take an action and can target only you. Use them as part of this power, but each takes effect later when its own clear trigger occurs. You can have only one Perfect Contingency active at a time.

Tier 10Action1/Ever

The One Possible Future

Name one plausible future event involving a creature, object, place, or conflict within range: a door opens, a weapon misses, a trial turns, a storm breaks, a villain escapes, or an ally survives. The GM defines the exact path of least impossibility. Until resolved, probability bends toward that event unless blocked by Tier 10 fate magic, divine intervention, or a story condition set when used.

Characters With This Aspect

Advantage

Addison Obelpraf

Addison Obelpraf, known as Advantage, is an elf astrologian scholar of Luxidran’s Wisdom Division. Her Witchborn gift bends probability into brief “advantage windows,” guiding crucial moments toward the most favorable outcome. Once limited to herself, her power now extends to nearby allies through discipline, calculation, and restraint. Loyal to lawful magical practice, Addison believes power should be trained, measured, and held accountable. In battle or crisis, she does not rewrite fate; she finds the narrow path where success is most likely.

AliveElfProbability Manipulation

Grease

Grease

Grease is a goblin ranger who’s lived alone in the cursed Whisperwoods since childhood, surviving on instinct, traps, and a total disregard for anything above four feet, including signs. A friendly menace, she’s a deadeye with a bow and a ghost-mushroom sommelier with serious opinions about bird espionage.

AliveGoblinProbability Manipulation

Luckweaver

Andrea Pelosh

Andrea Pelosh, known as Luckweaver, is Yuri Pelosh’s daughter, Dhaz Pelosh’s sister, and one of FLESH’s most dangerous senior operatives. Once tied to Luxidran and close to Aerovia Jeevens, Andrea’s path curdled into anti-construct Violince, turning old relationships into pressure points. Her Witchborn probability manipulation lets her bend chance through tiny disasters: a misfire, a slipped footing, a lucky escape, a plan unraveling one beat too late. Chaotic Evil and difficult to predict, Andrea does not need overwhelming force when the odds themselves can be made hostile. Around Luckweaver, coincidence is rarely innocent.

AliveHumanProbability Manipulation